The last two weeks have given financial markets a reminder of the volatility last seen in the global financial crisis in 2008 or the start of the pandemic in 2020. Let's take a look at a brief comparison.

Equity markets have fluctuated sharply in recent days. The S&P 500 has lost around 21%, while the Nasdaq 100 has weakened by around 10%. This decline reflects investor concerns about a possible slowdown in the US economy, renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks. The level of uncertainty in the markets is so high that some analysts have compared the current developments to the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, the fall was even more pronounced, with the S&P 500 losing more than half its value. The collapse of the banking sector and the crisis of confidence then paralysed the global financial system. By contrast, in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock markets did briefly weaken sharply (the S&P 500 by around 35%), but thanks to the vigorous intervention of central banks and governments, there was a rapid recovery.

However, bonds are now reacting differently. US Treasury yields are rising (its prices are falling). Investors now seem to view US debt as less of a safe haven due to inflation, high budget deficits and some uncertainty about the future direction of economic policy. In 2008, the situation was quite the opposite. At that time, investors were moving capital into government bonds, whose yields had fallen sharply. At that time, safe government bonds played a key role in stabilising portfolios. The same was true in 2020, when the pandemic led to global demand for "risk-free" assets and bond yields reached historic lows.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has weakened significantly over the past two weeks, losing almost 10% of its value against the euro and other currencies. For European investors, this means not only a fall in the value of dollar assets, but also an additional exchange rate loss. This development contrasts with the behaviour of the dollar in previous crises. In 2008, the dollar appreciated because it was considered a relatively safe asset. Even in 2020 during the pandemic, major exchange rates remained relatively stable, partly due to coordinated action by central banks and accommodative monetary policy that provided ample liquidity to markets.

Commodity markets have not been unresponsive. While the risk of a global recession has pushed the price of oil below USD 60 per barrel, gold has benefited from the panicky situation on the financial markets, with its price rising above USD 3 200 per troy ounce for the first time in history. Also in 2008, oil prices plummeted as a result of the sharp slowdown in the global economy. Gold, on the other hand, appreciated slightly as investors sought certainty. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices plunged to extremes - even briefly into negative territory for futures contracts. Gold strengthened significantly then, acting as a traditional store of value in times of global uncertainty.

The turbulence in financial markets in 2025 is close in scale and impact to the 2008 and 2020 crises, but the structure of the market response has changed. Equities are weakening significantly as before, but this time they are joined by a weakening dollar and falling US government bond prices. Even for investors, America is not what it used to be. A headline in the Financial Times reads: 'US President puts political risk premium on US assets'.