The world economy in 2025 is going through a period of uncertainty and slowing growth. According to the latest OECD data, the global economy remains resilient in 2024, with the US and some large emerging markets, including China, showing strong growth. However, signs of a slowdown are beginning to emerge in early 2025. Rising trade barriers and geopolitical tensions are adversely affecting investment and international trade, reducing the growth potential of many countries. The OECD forecasts global growth to fall from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and further to 3.0% in 2026.

One of the main factors affecting the economy in 2025 is inflation, which, while falling, remains above central bank targets in many countries. The main cause of persistent inflation is high prices in services. In some economies, such as the US, core inflation remains high, forcing central banks to take a cautious approach to cutting interest rates. The OECD estimates that inflation in G20 countries will fall from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, but is expected to rise in some regions, including China and Mexico.

Another important factor is rising protectionism and the fragmentation of world trade. The US and China have increased tariffs on each other, leading to retaliatory measures and rising trade costs. New tariff barriers between the US, Canada and Mexico are having a negative impact on the North American market and slowing economic growth in these countries. The OECD warns that if trade disputes continue, this could further weaken global growth and increase inflation. Conversely, if an agreement on tariff reductions is reached, it could boost economic growth and stabilise price levels.

In response to these challenges, the OECD recommends a prudent approach to monetary policy and fiscal discipline to help reduce government debt and prepare economies for future challenges. Countries should focus on structural reforms that will boost productivity and improve competitiveness. Digitalisation and faster adoption of artificial intelligence can play a key role, which can boost productivity and help overcome the negative effects of trade restrictions. Although the global economy is under pressure in 2025, well-designed economic policies and international cooperation can help mitigate risks and support long-term growth.