7 February 2025

US trade war

Global risk

President Donald Trump's administration was already known for its protectionist policies in its first term. This week it returned to this policy, imposing 10% tariffs on top of existing tariffs on imports from China, as well as 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada. However, tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada have been delayed for a month, creating time for further negotiations. Tariffs on imports from the EU have not yet been unveiled, but Donald Trump is already talking about plans to unveil them very soon. This strategy aims to protect US industry and jobs, but it leads to retaliation from the affected countries. This increases tensions in international trade and slows down economic growth.

China has announced that it will impose new 15% tariffs on imports of US coal and liquefied natural gas. 10% tariffs will apply to crude oil, agricultural machinery or some automobiles. At the same time, it has officially launched a dispute at the WTO over the new tariffs. Mexico and Canada, which are closely linked to the US market through the USMCA, are monitoring the situation and preparing possible responses. The EU is also declaring its readiness for tough negotiations and is considering measures to protect its businesses, particularly in the automotive industry, which is significantly affected.

The economic impact of these trade conflicts is considerable. The escalation of tariffs has led to an increase in the price of certain commodities, including fuel, which has a negative impact on consumers and industrial sectors. Investors in financial markets are reacting with concern, causing share prices to fall, particularly in export-dependent sectors. Protectionist measures are therefore not only protecting the domestic market, but also destabilising the global economy.

Given the ongoing trade disputes, it is clear that international trade relations remain a key issue in global politics. The future of these conflicts will depend on diplomatic negotiations between major economic players and a willingness to seek compromises. Trade wars thus show that short-term protectionist approaches can have long-term negative effects on the world economy and require careful strategic planning.