Risk of trade wars
17 January 2025
31 January 2025
The year is 2000. The previous decade began with a strong boost to the EU economy in the form of German reunification. The second half of the decade was noticeably weaker. GDP growth averaged 2.6 percent in the EU, while the U.S. breezed through it at 4.0 percent. Next up is the Lisbon Strategy, which aims to see economies catch up and overtake the US within a decade.
The year is 2010. Europe has not fared badly over the last ten years, the EU economy has developed similarly to the US, and the impact of the global financial crisis has been similar. However, there can be no question of catching up and overtaking. The ambitions of the Lisbon Strategy have remained largely unfulfilled. A new plan, Europe 2020, is on the way. However, in the second decade, the EU's economic growth rate is half that of the US. Moreover, there is a powerful new player in the game, China.
After the pandemic comes the NextGenerationEU plan to finally bring the EU back into the limelight with €750 billion (5 percent of EU GDP). At the start of 2025, Germany is already in its third year of a protracted recession. The whole EU will be happy to see GDP increase by 1 per cent this year, while the US steps up the pace to 3 per cent.
The year 2025 begins. A new strategy, the Competitiveness Compass, is on the cards. Will it finally deliver results? You don't have to study economic growth models to see that innovation and new technologies are the drivers. Pick any key technology theme of the moment, AI, quantum computers, electromobility, etc. and try to find Europe in it. From the US came ChatGPT, China's answer is DeepSeek, Europe is silent. For other topics it is similar.
Europe does not need any more complicated strategies. All it needs is 3M. I do not mean duct tape, but less regulation, less bureaucracy and, above all, less taxes. The EU's composite tax quota averages 40 per cent of GDP, the US 25 per cent, China 20 per cent. Moreover, in the case of the US and China, direct taxes are relatively lower, and indirect taxes are higher.