10 October 2024

Global manufacturing industry continues to weaken

The condition of the global manufacturing industry seems to be worsening: That is according to the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing published by S&P Global.

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PMIs are forward-looking indicators meant to signal the direction of the industry. They are based on subindices such as output, new orders, export orders, pricing, employment, inventories, and sentiment. A reading above 50 indicates growing activity—the higher the number, the faster the growth.

The global PMI—a composite of the PMIs of the 32 countries analyzed—fell from 49.6 in August to 48.8 in September, indicating accelerated decline in activity. All subindices worsened from August to September, and most of them were below 50. Of the 32 countries analyzed, only 10 had PMIs above 50, with the remaining 22 standing below 50. The countries with the highest PMIs were India, Philippines, Brazil, and Spain. The countries with the lowest PMIs were Germany, Austria, Turkey, and France.

The major countries/regions with growing manufacturing activity were the United Kingdom, India, ASEAN (Southeast Asia), and Taiwan. The major countries/regions with declining activity were the United States, eurozone, Japan, China, and South Korea. Within the eurozone, only Spain and Greece had growing activity.

The US manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 47.3 in September, indicating moderate decline. Output fell at the fastest pace in 15 months. New orders fell further, leading to a decline in employment in the industry. S&P noted that “spending, investment, and inventory-building have been paused in many cases amid the uncertainty caused by the presidential election.” On the other hand, the prospect of lower interest rates has boosted confidence.

In Europe, the manufacturing PMI for the 20-member eurozone fell to 45.0—a nine-month low. This was led by Germany where the PMI fell to 40.6—a 12-month low. Although Spain’s manufacturing sector exhibited momentum, it was not nearly sufficient to offset the worsening state of German manufacturing. Meanwhile, S&P reported that new orders are “plummeting fast,” boding poorly for future output. Plus, employment is falling rapidly. Also, despite the decline in demand, S&P reports that companies are struggling with supply chain problems, leading to delays and shortages. The state of eurozone manufacturing might compel the ECB to accelerate monetary easing.

Meanwhile, British manufacturing is in much better shape. The PMI fell but remained at 51.5 in September, indicating modest growth of activity. This was driven by relatively healthy domestic demand. On the other hand, confidence is declining as companies worry that a restrictive fiscal policy will dampen demand.

Turning to Asia, the manufacturing PMI for China worsened, falling from 50.4 in August to 49.3 in September, indicating a modest decline in activity. Although output increased modestly, there was a downturn in new orders and export orders. Indeed, new orders fell at the fastest pace in two years. The result was a further problem of excess supply. Employment fell and confidence deteriorated. The issue of insufficient demand is what has driven calls for more fiscal stimulus.

The manufacturing PMI for Japan fell slightly to 49.7 in September, indicating modest decline in activity. Output and new orders both declined. Employment grew very slowly while confidence remained positive, although it fell to the lowest level in two years. In addition, neighboring South Korea also saw a decline in manufacturing activity after having grown in the previous month.

The best performing manufacturing industry in the world was in India, where the PMI declined slightly to 56.5, indicating rapid expansion. All subindices were strong but decelerated from the previous month. In addition, Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI declined to 50.8, indicating modest growth. Finally, the PMI for ASEAN fell to 50.5, with the strongest growth in Singapore and the sharpest decline in Myanmar.