9 May 2025

M&A victims of the tariff war: a dramatic drop in corporate transactions

Global risk

The number of mergers and acquisitions in the world in April 2025 fell to the lowest level in 20 years, since February 2005. This is due to the high uncertainty in the financial markets, which was triggered by US President Donald Trump's decision on 2 April. Its key element was the unilateral imposition of tariffs on all US imports. This move caused chaos on the financial markets and an immediate reaction from foreign governments, including retaliatory measures. The subsequent suspension of the tariffs did not help the situation. The US announced that it was trying to negotiate trade agreements with dozens of countries. However, in practice, such negotiations usually take many years. 

According to data from Dealogic, only 555 deals were signed in the US, the world's largest M&A market, in April, the fewest since May 2009, and even fewer than during the height of the covid-19 pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis. Globally, the volume of corporate deals closed last month reached USD 243 billion, 54% lower than in March and 20% below the average for the last 20 years. 

Banks and advisory firms are advising companies to wait. Corporate managements often do not yet fully understand how the tariffs will affect companies, so they prefer to hold on to cash rather than look for acquisition opportunities. Significant market volatility, caused by unclear and frequently changing White House statements on tariff policy, is leading investors to be reluctant. The situation has been exacerbated by the consideration of the removal of Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, which has raised concerns about the central bank's independence. 

However, not all sectors are equally affected. Manufacturing sectors that depend on imports of raw materials or exports of finished products are suffering the most. By contrast, technology, whose value lies mainly in software and algorithms, has had a relatively successful month. Roughly 40% of all M&A deals in the US in 2025 will be for technology firms. A notable acquisition, for example, was the USD 24.3 billion takeover of payment processing company Global Payments.