28 February 2025

The ongoing trade war

Global risk

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has announced a series of new tariff measures targeting several key US trading partners. Starting March 4, 25% tariffs will be imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian oil subject to a 10% tariff. At the same time, the existing 10% tariff on Chinese goods will double to 20%. Trump justifies these steps by seeking to curb fentanyl smuggling and illegal migration into the US.

These measures have provoked strong reactions from the countries concerned. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the imposition of retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed hope for further talks with the Trump administration to resolve the disputes that have arisen.

The Trump administration is also planning to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union, which could have significant economic impacts on both sides of the Atlantic. The German think-tank Kiel Institute warns that such a move could lead to a 15-17% drop in EU exports to the US and slow economic growth in both regions.

Experts warn that this escalation of trade disputes could disrupt global supply chains, raise prices for consumers and create uncertainty in financial markets. Despite these warnings, the Trump administration continues its protectionist policies to protect the domestic economy through tariff barriers.